what would happen if the electoral college was abolished

Stanford University. Its possible the Supreme Court will ultimately decide who gets to decide how individual electors vote. Majority supports changing Electoral College system for U.S Why? Erdogan's 'polar opposite' wants to replace him as president of Turkey. All comments are moderated by the Learning Network staff, but please keep in mind that once your comment is accepted, it will be made public. But it's possible the candidate with the most votes from the public won't be the winner. 2. In addition to the NPVIC discussed above, there are two variations on this theme that could reduce the odds that someone could win the presidency without winning the national popular vote. Third, a national election might provide a cure for the delegitimation of presidential authority that has afflicted the last three presidencies. The places where there are more people become the top priority, especially if there is a chance to swing some votes. The supporters of the NPV are not hiding their goal: They are trying to circumvent the AK constitutional amendment process and manipulate the Electoral College out of existence.11. Americas auto industry auto industry auto industry At least in part because its located mostly in swing states, like Michigan and Ohio, states whose electoral votes he needed to win. The current system for electing a U.S. president traces back to 1787. And it confines vote-counting disputes to just one, or maybe a few, states. When enough states join in this interstate compact, itll mean that the popular-vote winner will always become president. There have been three: John Quincy Adams, Benjamin Harrison and George W. Bush. A number of states have signed onto a pact that guarantees their Electoral College votes to the winner of the popular vote, no matter the outcome in their individual states. Then in 2016, Donald Trump won the Electoral College despite receiving 2.1% less of the popular vote. The Constitution is silent on whether states or the electors themselves ultimately can decide which candidate gets the electors vote, and the U.S. Supreme Court has not addressed that issue in the handful of cases it has considered related to the Electoral College. These imbalances effectively ensure that some votes in presidential elections are worth more than others, and as that imbalance scales up across the entire Electoral College, it can (under the right circumstances) provide the recipes for popular vote winners losing the Electoral College. There are currently 538 electors up for grabs in an election, which means a majority of 270 is necessary to elect the President. The truth is . Polls from FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast have predicted. Still, Levy said if he had to bet on whether the U.S. will still be using the Electoral College in 20 years he thinks it will. The party structureswhich, for all their faults, have a vested interest in candidates from the moderate middle who are able to work with Congress and other officials to governhave been sidelined. **Here, we treat the District of Columbia as a single congressional district (as the 23rd Amendment to the Constitution does for the purposes of the Electoral College). Although he said that the system was far from perfect, it was at least excellent. But its logic, its distortion of the democratic process and its underlying flaws will still strongly influence the conduct of the election. It also stops the distribution process where California gets 55 votes, but a state like Delaware only gets 3. The winner of an election should be the person who gets the most votes. See: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/10/21/can-the-electoral-college-be-subverted-by-faithless-electors/. Nonetheless, it is likely the most viable alternative to the current Electoral College system. Thats because, regardless of its overall merits, change is always rooted in the politics of the day. Gronke notes, however, that there would be major administrative challenges if the U.S. ever got to the point of switching to a national popular vote. What happens if a candidate with electoral votes dies or becomes I think it would make more sense to split the electoral votes based on the state-wide vote so if a state has 10 electoral votes and the election goes 60% to 40%, the candidates gets 6 votes and 4 votes respectively. There is a trigger for NPV to go into effect, and we are creeping ever closer toward it.10 When enough states have entered the compact to reach a majority of the electoral votes270 out of 538the compact will then kick in. For instance, in 1900 New York was the biggest state in the union with 7,268,894 people and the state with the median population, Louisiana, had 1,381,625 people. There are over 300 million people currently residing in the United States, but only 538 people actually get to choose who gets to be the president. Does this interactive influence how you feel about the Electoral College? What I learned is it doesnt have to be this way. Activists, with the aid of misguided state legislators, have begun to gain ground in the states, with NPV arising as a serious threat to the stability of our presidential election process. The way it gets implemented is the result of dozens of state laws, which evolved over time as the country settled into a two-party system. In the 20th century there were 25 presidential elections and none of them resulted in an Electoral College winner who lost the popular vote. In this case, 19 state legislatures are currently controlled solely by Democrats. The correct number is 102. Democratic presidential candidates are weighing in too. 7. The current structure limits Americans from pushing in this direction even though candidates tend to visit swing states more often. What would happen if the Electoral College was eliminated? Instead of dealing with these complications, a simple majority vote would always speak of the will of the people. "You look at the Florida situation we had in 2000 that already took a lot of time and effort, but imagine if that was done across the country. Technically, it is . That is not to say the Electoral College is without its advantages. The interests of the minority would no longer receive protection. A split of electoral votes has occurred once in each of these states. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/learning/is-the-electoral-college-a-problem-does-it-need-to-be-fixed.html. Places like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan. The presidential election in 2016 saw a modern-era record for faithless electors, but five of them came from the Clinton camp. And because they created it, its a sacred work of constitutional genius. Sixty years later inRay v. Blair, the court ruled the Constitution, including the 12th Amendment, does not bar a political party from requiring electors to sign a pledge to support the nominees of the national convention. Many of them were unhappy with the results. It is not simply Republican elected officials who want to maintain the Electoral College system; Republican voters support it as well. 10. Christine Stenglein and Saku Gopinath provided research support for this post. "The game will be: Be a liberal to the extent I can maximize votes in major urban centers.". James Madison, known as the father of the Constitution, was very disturbed by the state winner-take-all rule, which he considered one of the central flaws of the Electoral College as it took shape in the early 19th century. The electors can vote their conscience as well, refusing to follow what their state elections guide them to do. But reforming the Electoral College does not rank high among our national problems. While there are two different means to amend the founding document, this country has always used the same route: a 2/3rds vote in both houses of Congress, followed by the ratification of 3/4ths of the states. So overall, while the Electoral College may not make much of a difference to the results of our modern elections, it forces our politicians to have a larger scope of the issues facing this country, rather than just focusing on the concerns people in areas with large populations care about. But the Electoral College is worse than merely useless. 61% of Americans Support Abolishing Electoral College - Gallup.com This isnt a partisan issue its a fairness issue. Instead of having a regional focus that incorporates specific campaigning elements, there would be a national campaign instead. Faith in elections, trust in government, and the legitimacy of elected officials and the offices they hold will be challenged by a system that consistently turns its back on the will of the voters. But the real interests of small-state voters are never determined by the relative size of the population of their states. 4. That could have happened even though Biden won the popular vote by 7,060,087 (and counting)a margin even larger than the margins won by George W Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012. Note: A previous version of this post stated that awarding 2 electoral votes per state (plus D.C.) to the national popular vote winner would form a baseline of 138 votes. The amendments Fully overhauling the way the president is selected would take a Constitutional amendment, which would require the votes of two-thirds of. This is because the president is not . Our votes would count the same wherever they were cast. In two of these elections, a. All parts of the country would not be involved in the selection of the president. This toolkit provides guidance and resources to those associated with community colleges who are interested in either creating a pathway program to law school or enhancing an existing program. .just the large States - the Cities would end up running the Country. Tell us about it. Learn more about how to use our free daily writing prompts for remote learning. But reforming the Electoral College does not rank high among our national problems. It can be fixed. And this year, who knows? The Electoral College is outlined in Article II, Section 1, of the U.S. Constitution. From hair trends to relationship advice, our daily newsletter has everything you need to sound like a person whos on TikTok, even if you arent. So far, 15 states plus the District of Columbia have joined in for a total of 196 electoral votes, just 74 more. The small towns in the United States, along with all of the rural areas, would become marginalized if this system were to be entirely abolished. But its worth taking a closer look at arguments in favor of keeping the status quo. Both times in 2000 and 2016 it was the Republican candidate who got fewer votes but ended up in the White House. Parties must obtain no less than 7% of votes - either on their own or in alliance with other parties - in order to enter . The pact raises questions of its own for democracy: It creates a situation in which voters in, for example, Colorado, may cast most of their votes for the Democrat in a presidential race but the state might wind up giving its electors to the Republican depending on the national outcome. That might invite legal challenges from candidates or voters' groups if it took place. The electoral college ignores the will of the people. Britannicas ProCon.org lists three reasons: 1) The founding fathers thought the Electoral College was the best method for electing the president.2) The Electoral College ensures that different parts of the country, such as Iowa and Ohio, are involved in selecting the president, rather than just the most populated areas.3) The Electoral College guarantees certainty, whereas a popular vote system might lead to no candidate getting a majority. We will focus on elections in the 20th and 21st centuries. Beto O'Rourke Announces His Run For President In 2020, Moderate Democrats Under Pressure As Party's Left Grabs Attention. 1. They want the option to select a president based on who gets the most votes nationally. hide caption. 6. Thats when the Founding Fathers crafted a compromise between those who argued for the election of the president by a vote of Congress and the election of the president by a popular vote of qualified citizens. That means the major party that can maintain its base could win elections without a clear majority. And finally, Myth 3: The Electoral College protects small states. It is a process that allows the people to choose who serves in the White House instead of throwing it into Congress. If this system were to be abolished, then every vote counted would have the exact same weight in the final tally. Turkey general election 2023 guide: what you need to know | CNN Take the Electoral College, Americas system for picking the president. That position, shared by many Republicans, makes it highly unlikely that there would be sufficient support for changing the system. Each of those states has Democratic control of the state legislature. In May, the Washington State Supreme Courtuphelda state election law that said an elector who did not vote for the candidate he pledged to support could be fined up to $1,000 in civil penalties. Having the states play an autonomous role in presidential elections, it is said, reinforces the division of governing authority between the nation and the states. What would happen if the Electoral College was abolished? Three happened in the 19th century; none in the 20th century and two in the 21st century. 260, February 19, 2020, p. 9, https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/report/destroying-the-electoral-college-the-anti-federalist-national-popular-0. Find all our Student Opinion questions in this column. Have an idea for a Student Opinion question? [1] Over the years some of them, so-called faithless electors, have deviated from this norm but in 29 states and the District of Colombia state laws exist which bind the electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote. It causes some votes to have greater weight than others. That means if you live in a rural area, your vote may count more toward who gets to be the eventual president. Because Donald Trump lost to Hillary Clinton in the popular vote, yet was the clear victor in the ultimately definitive electoral college, the strange, disproportionate nature of electoral. This process stopped the process that was used in England to select a Prime Minister. In the interactive diagram The Battleground States Biden and Trump Need to Win 270, you are able to build your own coalition of states to see how either candidate, President Trump or former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., can win the election. As far as the 2016 election is concerned, Hillary Clinton would still be the likely winner if the Electoral College didn't exist. Debate renewed in 2016 after theelectionof the fifth U.S. president who won the presidency despite losing the popular vote. The primary benefit of the electoral college is that it works to protect the best interests of the minority in every election. "Every vote matters," said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in Mississippi on Monday. When a state passes legislation to join the National Popular Vote Compact, it compels the state to award its electoral votes to whomever wins the national popular vote, regardless of which candidate won in that state. US election 2020: What is the electoral college? - BBC News Using bots can streamline some law firm work, American Bar Association Nebraska and Maine already award some of their electors to the winners of the congressional districts. 4. How the Electoral College Was Nearly Abolished in 1970 - History A few states provide criminal penalties if an elector violates the requirement. Its no wonder the candidates fixate on issues that matter to specific groups of voters in swing states, like fracking in Pennsylvania This is my 13th visit. or prescription drug benefits in Florida. But as people moved and the economy changed so did that ratio. The Constitution provides no express role for the states after appointment of its presidential electors, the 10th Circuit panel said, adding, Once appointed, (electors) are free to vote as they choose.. The voices of small states, like Rhode Island and Wyoming, would be drowned out. It causes some votes to have greater weight than others. Opinion | Abolish the electoral college - The Washington Post In his video, Mr. Wegman offers counterarguments to what he calls myths about the Electoral College. There have been some unusual elections, such as the 1972 affair when Richard Nixon took 520 electoral votes to George McGoverns 16. The US presidential election takes place 3 November. 7. We survived. Without the Electoral College, big states like California and New York would dominate elections. Abolishing the Electoral College: Since the year 2000, there have been five presidential elections. The elected officials of both parties have incentives to choose candidates with an eye toward popular electability and governing skill. What are the positive arguments in favor of replacing the existing electoral system with a national popular vote? For example, in 1967, 58 percent favored its abolition, while in 1981, 75 percent of . As far as the 2016 election is concerned, Hillary Clinton would still be the likely winner if the Electoral College didn't exist. Stanford, CA 94305-6105 By Michael W. McConnell, the Richard and Frances Mallery Professor of Law, director of the Constitutional Law Center and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. It doesnt. [2] The compact would then be 43 Electoral College votes short of going into effect. Or is it working the way it is supposed to? The presidential election is held every four years on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. In the U.S., 65 percent of adults think whoever wins the popular vote should hold the nation's highest office, according to an Atlantic/PRRI poll last year. Having this structure go away would encourage more third-party development. This system allows minorities to have a bigger microphone for their concerns as well. The Current Threat | The Heritage Foundation Today, 48 states use winner-take-all. It said that the Colorado secretary of state erred in removing an elector who cast his vote for then-Ohio Gov. Alternative 2: Two electoral votes to national popular vote winner; remainder apportioned by congressional district, *Each of these races included faithless electors, such that the total of electoral votes, as shown, does not equal 538. With the divide between Democrats and Republicans currently in place, the likelihood that this idea will receive any movement any time soon is quite minimal. Does It Need to Be Fixed? There will always be a concern about the tyranny of the majority in the United States. The following table shows how this would have changed the outcome in two contested elections of the 21st century, and how a third would have remained the same. Popular vote is a direct vote. It is extremely difficult to amend the Constitution. Why? Only Rutherford Hayes, with a 3% difference, won the electoral college despite being in the minority. Candidates had to go to each state to talk about what they wanted to do for the country because there was no other way to let people know what was happening. In the history of the United States, there have been six presidential elections that would have qualified for this issue and three of them have occurred since 1968. What would happen if the Electoral College was abolished? In a polarized political environment, such an institutional structure remains entrenched. No more Electoral College? Here's how campaigning might change Abolishing the Electoral College stops swing states from having sway in the election. As discussed above, the only practical way of ending the Electoral College is by changing the ways in which states use the popular vote to award electors to the presidential candidates. Rural Americans would be serfs if we abolished the Electoral College This spring, numerous candidates for president expressed support for either abolishing or changing the Electoral College, which ultimately picks the U.S. president. Including prescription drug benefits and all seniors at every income level. But they spend almost no time talking about issues that matter to millions of voters elsewhere, like public transportation in New York or climate change in California. Second, a national popular vote would eliminate the battleground state phenomenon that has now become the key feature of post-convention campaigning, leaving most Americans alienated from the decisive phase of presidential elections. Warren Focuses On Policy, Which Looks Like A Tough Sell With Voters, Which Democrats Are Running In 2020 And Which Still Might. 2023 BDG Media, Inc. All rights reserved. Our 230-year-old jerry-built system for picking the president, known as the Electoral College. Two closely watched cases arising from the 2016 electoral process, however, might provide the justices with an opportunity to do just that. [1] Only when they sign the certificate of ascertainment and the votes are tallied in the United States Congress is the presidential race officially over. Why did they lose? Supporters of a national popular vote argue something must be done; the Electoral College disproportionately inflates the influence of rural areas while undervaluing the votes of cities. But dont forget, Bush won the popular vote four years later by three million votes. This process means that each candidate must speak with the entire country instead of visiting the largest cities as a way to solicit for votes. Abolishing the Electoral College seems to be the next logical step in that process. This means that every election, 80 percent of American voters, roughly 100 million people, get ignored. Article II, section 1 of the Constitution establishes the Electoral College. Only one election was so close that it had to go to the House of Representatives, which is how John Quincy Adams won over Andrew Jackson. Do you think that more states or all states should join the compact? The general threshold that an election result must reach to trigger an automatic recount is a difference of 0.5% of the vote or less. Opinion | Will the Economy Make or Break Biden in 2024? 2? And while the founding fathers implemented this voting process as a way to "preserve the sense of the people" in other words, to go against the popular vote's wishes if the elite few chosen to be electors felt that the winner was unqualified or unfit most states now abide by a "winner-takes-all" method of distributing votes that renders the original purpose moot. PDF It's time to abolish the Electoral College - Brookings TheNational Archives reportsthat over the past 200 years more than 700 proposals have been introduced in Congress to reform or eliminate the Electoral College without any becoming law. To understand why, lets start from the point we make above: the Electoral College system currently benefits Republicans, as two Republican presidents in the last 20 years have been elected despite losing the popular vote and that nearly happened a third time this year. Thanks to the Internet, telephones, email, social media, and every other form of communication that we have today, people can choose for themselves whether a new story has an underlying sinister bias. And the most recent major occasion took place in 1969, 1970, when there was a strong bipartisan effort to abolish the electoral college and have us utilize a national popular vote. Did you know that when Americans vote in the 2020 presidential election, theyre not actually voting for the next president? The Electoral College website now has an easy-to-remember address. #Marianne2024 . That means that the national winner would start out with 102 Electoral College votes. During the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump had 90% of their campaign stops in only 11 states. Now is the time for sober and spirited citizens from both parties to devise a new system for 2020. Should we abolish the Electoral College? - Constitution Center If, say, environmental sustainability or abortion or the Second Amendment is your dominant concern, it does not matter whether you live in Wyoming or California, Pennsylvania or Delaware. What Is the Electoral College and Why Was It Created? - History ABA Legal Fact Check: Can the Electoral College be abolished? Source: Daily Kos Elections. For almost the first half century of the republic, presidential candidates were chosen by the caucuses of the two parties in the House and the Senate. Its how we run every election in the country, except the most important one of all. 2016 is on track to be the fifth election in U.S. political history in which the candidate who wins the most votes is not the one elected president -- giving rise to another round of calls to. And so each Electoral College vote in a small state like Delaware or Wyoming is worth more than an Electoral College vote in a big state like California. Thats almost 1.5 billion votes. Stanford, California 94305. It's time to abolish the Electoral College - Brookings Having the states play an autonomous role in presidential elections, it is said, reinforces the division of governing authority between the nation and the states. Yet, ratification happens not by popular vote but by state legislature. There have also been five elections where the eventual president didnt win a majority of the vote, including Trump in 2016. Throughout our nations history there have been many unwise attempts to abolish the Electoral College, but these proposed constitutional amendments saw little success and unsurprisingly failed to gain traction. The effect is to erase all the voters in that state who didnt vote for the top candidate. And the reasons people think we need to keep the Electoral College the way it is, theyre all wrong. Think about it. Under the current plan, states that join will not activate the compact until enough states have joined to total 270 electoral votes. Most Americans, by a wide margin, believe the Electoral College should be abolished. Do they outweigh the arguments that Mr. Wegman presents? A Constitutional Amendment to Abolish the Electoral College But the reality is, right now neither the small states nor the big ones have the voice they should. In the ensuing 215 years, the Electoral College system itself has changed little, although the popular vote has been rightfully guaranteed to millions more previously denied on the basis of race, gender and age. Why We Should Abolish the Electoral College - New York Times